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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|