Are You Not Being Entertained? This Fall of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the Premier League season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides have been scoring increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.
When we compare scoring methods to the initial 11 matches last season, we see a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less in total.
If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking show an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the notable jump in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots created from these situations outside of penalties, indicating how effective sides are at finding ways to convert from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Show a Story
301 total goals notched in 110 games up to now averages out at 2.74 goals each match, which if it continued for the whole season would be the smallest for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69).
However, only 196 goals scored in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is heading to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76).
That campaign also marks the unique EPL campaign to see goals scored more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Are Most Responsible?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant drop, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's fall in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with five of the city's seven teams scoring at least five goals fewer from open-play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is mainly because them scoring many scores at the start of last season instead of them really struggling to score in open play this season.
Meanwhile Man City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far arriving in open play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
We've compared the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have scored three extra scores in open play than Southampton did in matchday 11 on their way to the drop the previous campaign.
Regarding scoring from set-pieces (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five goals that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
Man United have recorded double the number goals from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to their coach took over, while Sunderland again have been more effective at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.
Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, as they've netted a reduction of three than last season, like the Reds, even if this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this term's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and additional from set-plays, while City are the sole team to defy the pattern up to now by doing the complete reverse.
It will be fascinating to observe if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open play also.